Probability — A Closer Reading
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Produced by Greg Weeks and the Online Distributed Proofreading Team at https://www.pgdp.net
This etext was produced from If Worlds of Science Fiction April 1954. Extensive research did not uncover any evidence that the U.S. copyright on this publication was renewed.
_If you ever get to drinking beer in your favorite saloon and meet a scared little guy who wants to buy you the joint, supply you with fur coats and dolls and run you for Congress--listen well! That is, if you really want the joint, the fur coats, the dolls and a seat in Congress. Just ask Mike Murphy...._
Illustration by Ed Emsh
The first time this little guy comes in I'm new on the job. He looks around as if he's scared a prohibition agent will pop out of the walls and bite him. Then he gets up his nerve and sidles to the bar. His voice is as thin as the rest of him.
I draw. He drinks and pays and goes out.
That keeps on, Monday through Friday at five-ten p.m., year in and year out. He slips in, peers around, has his beer, and pops out. Even in '33, when we become legitimate, he acts the same way--scared of his shadow. Except he isn't big enough to have a shadow.
During the war, when we're rationed, I save him his daily glass. He never fails to come in except for two weeks every summer when he's on vacation. From 1922 to 1953 he drinks one daily beer.
In thirty-one years, he and I grow older together, and after the first ten he talks a little so that over a period of time I manage to learn something about him. That first day he'd come in, he was on his first job out of college. Well, so was I, only I went to bartending school to learn how to mix prohibition liquor. But even so, it gave us something in common, and when he learned we had started life together--as he put it--he talked a little more.
His name is Pettis. Six months after I learn that, I get his first name. It's Rabelais, and I could see why he doesn't like it. But when he breaks down and tells me, he gets real bold and says:
"And what's yours, my male Hebe?"
"Naturally," he said. He laughs. It is the only time I hear him laugh in thirty-one years. I can't see anything funny.
He is a draftsman for those old skinflints Cartner and Dillson. When they die, their sons take over and are even worse. In the depression, Pettis gets a little shabby but he always has the price of a glass of beer. In '53 he's at the same desk and doing the same job he started on in '22.
In '35 he gets married. He tells me so. Tasting his beer, he says, "I'll be married this time tomorrow." I often wonder what his wife looks like but I never see her. Not even when it gets decent for ladies to come in, she never shows. Marriage doesn't seem to change him; he never looks happier or less shabby or less browbeat.
In '42 I heard his first complaint. By then we're both getting into our forties and, what with his lack of size and caved-in chest and my insides all busted up from pre-World War I football, the army doesn't want us. So he never misses a day except on his vacation.
He says, "I can't get raw materials." About three months later, I understand what he means when he says, "My hobby is inventing."
In '45 I ask him, "What do you invent?"
It takes him two years to decide to tell me. By now we are pretty good pals. He never tells anyone else that I know of. He says, "I invent machines. Super machines."
In '48 he says, "But they don't work. Someday...."
And in '53, on the day of our thirty-first anniversary, you might say, he comes in and things are different. All different. I can feel it when he opens the door and comes in at five-o-nine instead of five-ten. There is plenty more different, too. He walks up to the bar like it's his and roars:
I drop a glass I'm so surprised, but I give him two beers like he wants. He gulps them both down, puts a foot on the rail and looks me straight in the eye. His eyes are a sort of washed blue. I've never noticed them before.
"Beer for the house!" he yells at me.
"Take it easy, Mr. Pettis," I says.
"Easy, hell!" he shouts and slaps a roll as big as his hand on the bar. "And call me Rabelais, Mike. We're pals, aren't we?"
Louis Trimble’s “Probability” opens not with a spaceship or a laboratory but with a bartender’s weary, affectionate recollection of a regular customer. The narrator, Mike Murphy, has spent thirty-one years pouring a single daily glass of beer for Rabelais Pettis, a man so slight and nervous that he “isn’t big enough to have a shadow.” The story’s first half is a slow, observational character study, grounded in the rhythms of a saloon from Prohibition through the 1950s. Trimble builds Pettis’s portrait through small, repeated details: his sidling walk, his thin voice, his two-week summer vacations. The prose is colloquial and dry, with Murphy’s voice carrying the narrative in a series of short, punchy paragraphs that mimic spoken storytelling.
The Weight of Routine
The story’s early pages are dominated by repetition. Pettis arrives at five-ten p.m., Monday through Friday, “year in and year out.” Murphy saves him a beer during wartime rationing. Over decades, the two men age together, but Pettis’s life remains static: the same drafting job at Cartner and Dillson, the same shabby clothes, the same fearful demeanor. Even marriage, announced flatly over a beer, does not alter his routine. Trimble uses this accumulation of identical days to establish a baseline of normalcy against which the later time-travel premise will feel jarringly abrupt. The narrative voice—Murphy’s—is the only source of variation, offering wry asides like his reaction to Pettis’s first name: “I could see why he doesn’t like it.” The pacing is deliberately unhurried, mirroring the slow passage of years.
A Shift in Register
After decades of quiet observation, the story’s tone changes sharply when Pettis finally explains his proposal. He offers Murphy “the joint, fur coats, dolls, and a seat in Congress” in exchange for help preventing a nuclear bomb from falling into the wrong hands. The language becomes more urgent, with Pettis leaning over the bar and speaking in short, emphatic sentences: “And you are the one who stops them before they get started.” Murphy’s own voice shifts from bemused detachment to active engagement. The transition is marked by a physical action—Murphy throws his apron into a corner and rolls down his sleeves—signaling a move from passive chronicler to participant. Trimble does not linger on the mechanics of time travel; the focus remains on the characters’ reactions and the sudden acceleration of the plot.
Uncertainty in the Future Tense
Even as the story embraces its science-fiction premise, it retains a note of skepticism. Murphy agrees to run for Congress and cool the “lunkheads” who threaten disaster, but he is never allowed to read the history books that would confirm his success. “How can I be sure what to do if he won’t let me read about what I did?” he complains. This unresolved tension between faith and proof gives the ending an ironic edge. The narrative voice, which has been reliable in its mundanity, now confronts the limits of its own knowledge. Trimble leaves the reader with a sense of incomplete resolution: the time-travel plan works, but the narrator remains uncertain of his own role. The story closes on that note of doubt, refusing to provide a neat, triumphant conclusion.
Readers should pay attention to how Trimble uses Murphy’s voice to bridge two genres: the realistic barroom anecdote and the speculative time-travel plot. The story’s effectiveness depends on the contrast between the slow, observational first half and the rapid, almost offhand delivery of the science-fiction elements. Notice also how the title “Probability” resonates with the narrator’s uncertainty—he acts on a probable outcome, not a guaranteed one. The story rewards attention to its small, repeated details and the subtle shifts in tone that mark the transition from ordinary life to extraordinary events.
Thirty-one years of Rabelais Pettis taught me that quiet men often carry the loudest regrets. That slow, sideways approach to saving the world reminded me of another old favorite, The Moon Destroyers — Story, Setting & Ideas, which has the same patient, almost wistful way of turning small lives toward enormous outcomes. I still think about the draftsman sometimes. Strange how some stories stay.
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